Water AetherwingTier 2
at GA DTR Store Championships
decks
2
(13.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
3-6-1
overall winrate
35.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.4%
avg ELO -1.2 per match
expected value
43.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1306
· median 1306
· range 1230–1383
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1139
Q1 1237
Q3 1382
1460
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 33.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.3% | -2.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 26.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.8% | -14.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 62.7% | +12.2 |
| Fire Exia | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.6 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.5 |
